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Report Calendar
2026 · Upcoming releases
Market News
Latest headlines · Updated continuously
Weekly US Net Sales
Week ending —
25/26 MY Export Pace vs USDA Target
Week ending —
Weekly US Crop Conditions & Planting
USDA NASS · Loading latest weekly crop progress
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Argentina Crop
Argentina Grains
Soybeans
Updated May 28, 2026
Harvest progress
89%
Last year
84%
Good condition
83%
Crop estimate
50.1M
Harvest
89%
Last year
84%
Good condition
83%
Harvest is +5 pts ahead of last year and about +1.5 pts ahead of the 5-year pace. Area 16.8M ha; yield around 32.8 qq/ha.
Argentina Grains
Corn
Updated May 28, 2026
Harvest progress
49%
Last year
43%
Good condition
-
Crop estimate
64.0M
Harvest
49%
Last year
43%
Good condition
-
Harvest is +6 pts ahead of last year and about +6.3 pts ahead of the 5-year pace.
Polymarket Signals
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Wheat
598.25
USc/bu · Mar 2026
USDA WASDE · May 2026 (12 May 2026)
Trade Flows
12-Month Price History
Current Yr
Prior Yr
Year-Over-Year Comparison
🇦🇷 Argentina — Monthly Soybean Crushing
Metric tonnes · Source: CIARA-CEC / MAGyP
Marketing Year Apr–Mar (Table adjusted to Oct–Sep per WASDE)
🏭 Industry Structure
Installed capacity: ~70 MMT/year across 41 plants (Santa Fe 163k MT/day, Córdoba 18.5k, Buenos Aires 16.5k).
Utilisation: ~60% in 2024 — structural idle capacity due to supply constraints, not demand.
MONTH 21/22 22/23 ☁ 23/24 24/25 25/26F
Oct3,338,0452,916,1391,860,8264,146,6684,044,484
Nov2,920,4283,323,0501,898,9833,437,2033,496,682
Dec2,956,8222,621,2291,930,2943,659,7673,111,287
Jan2,517,8711,885,0172,130,4272,905,6712,725,213
Feb2,643,8171,554,4512,362,1252,644,3641,991,244
Mar2,934,7522,111,7362,907,6203,231,7783,241,320
Apr3,927,8382,878,9913,824,6523,400,2223,478,822
May4,142,9103,493,9493,968,9903,884,691—
Jun3,931,7033,017,6783,968,8464,063,340—
Jul3,479,7662,551,6414,405,3513,794,737—
Aug3,146,9802,078,6393,233,4333,907,939—
Sep2,873,4641,907,3634,114,6604,159,691—
TOTAL38,814,39530,339,88436,606,20743,236,07222,089,052
☁ = severe drought year  ·  25/26 Oct–Mar only  ·  Source: BCBA/MAGyP · CIARA-CEC · Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario
Soy Oil Policy Driver
45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit
IRS/Treasury clean fuel credit for domestic transportation fuel. The policy rewards lower lifecycle carbon intensity and, after 2025, favors North American feedstocks.
▲ Bullish · Qualifying soy oil CI-score driven Feedstock origin matters
SECTION 45Z · KEY POLICY POINTS
  • 45Z is an income tax credit for clean transportation fuel produced domestically and sold in a qualifying sale.
  • The credit is available for fuel sold from Jan 1, 2025 through Dec 31, 2029, after the 2025 law extended the program.
  • For fuel produced after Dec 31, 2025, feedstocks must be exclusively produced or grown in the United States, Mexico, or Canada.
  • The credit equals the applicable amount per gallon multiplied by the fuel's emissions factor.
  • The emissions factor is based on how far the fuel's lifecycle GHG emissions rate is below 50 kg CO2e/mmBtu.
  • Non-SAF and SAF sold after 2025 use the same applicable amount structure: $0.20/gal base or $1.00/gal if PWA rules are met.
  • Emissions rates are determined through IRS annual tables and allowed methods, with 45ZCF-GREET used for modeled pathways.
  • Post-2025 emissions rates exclude indirect land use change; negative emissions are generally capped at zero except animal manure feedstocks.
  • Fuel producers must be registered with the IRS at production time, generally via Form 637, and claim the credit on Form 7218.
  • Treasury/IRS proposed regulations explicitly discuss biodiesel from U.S. soybean oil and Canadian soybean oil pathways.
Credit Formula
Applicable amount
$0.20 / $1.00
x
Emissions factor
(50 - CI) / 50
Lower lifecycle carbon intensity produces a larger credit. A fuel with CI at or above 50 kg CO2e/mmBtu gets little or no value; a CI near zero can approach the full applicable amount.
CI by commodity / feedstockkg CO2e/mmBtu
Commodity / Feedstock Fuel pathway CI 45Z read-through
Soybean oil Biodiesel 61.9 Above 50 little or no value unless facility CI is lowered.
Soybean oil Renewable diesel / SAF 63.2 Above 50 limited 45Z value under default CI.
Canola oil Biodiesel 87.8 High CI weak credit support without process-specific reduction.
Distillers corn oil Biodiesel / renewable diesel 44.2 Below 50 can generate positive 45Z value.
Tallow Biodiesel 45.6 Below 50 supportive for low-CI diesel pathways.
Domestic UCO Biodiesel / renewable diesel / SAF 45.4 Below 50 value depends heavily on origin documentation.
UCO is affected: domestic/North American UCO remains a low-CI 45Z feedstock, but imported or foreign UCO is restricted/pending guidance after 2025, so origin traceability matters.
Indicative examples from DOE 45ZCF-GREET May 2025 total LCA output. Actual credit value remains facility-specific and depends on IRS annual tables, hydrogen, electricity, process inputs, and final guidance.
Soy Oil Read-Through
▲ Domestic feedstock pull
The North American feedstock rule should support qualifying U.S./Canada/Mexico vegetable oils versus non-qualifying imported feedstocks.
▲ Biofuel margin support
For biodiesel, renewable diesel, and SAF producers, 45Z can add margin where CI is low enough, improving bid capacity for qualifying soy oil.
▼ CI discount risk
High-CI pathways receive smaller credits, so soybean oil demand is more sensitive to GREET assumptions, plant energy, hydrogen source, and documentation.
▼ Policy uncertainty
As of May 1, 2026, Treasury/IRS rules are proposed, with final rules and annual emissions tables still key watch items.
What To Watch For Soy Oil
1. Final 45Z regulations and updated emissions-rate tables for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and SAF pathways.
2. 45ZCF-GREET updates for soybean oil, canola oil, tallow, UCO, hydrogen, electricity, and CCS inputs.
3. Feedstock traceability: origin proof becomes central after Dec 31, 2025, because non-North-American feedstocks lose eligibility.
4. Relative value versus RFS D4 RINs: RFS sets the volume pull, while 45Z changes the margin and feedstock preference.
5. Transfer/monetization market: producers with credits may transfer them, affecting how quickly value reaches feedstock bids.
Sources: IRS Clean Fuel Production Credit  ·  IRS OBBBA provisions  ·  Treasury/IRS proposed regulations  ·  DOE 45ZCF-GREET
Soy Oil Policy Driver
⛽ US Renewable Fuel Standard — Set 2 Final Rule
EPA finalised Mar 27, 2026 · Effective Jun 15, 2026 · Highest volumes in RFS program history
▲ Bullish · Soybean Oil 📋 Record Volumes 2026–2027 ⚠️ Foreign Feedstock Penalty From 2028
US RENEWABLE FUEL STANDARD · KEY POLICY POINTS
  • EPA finalised the Set 2 rule on Mar 27, 2026; it becomes effective Jun 15, 2026.
  • Total RFS volume set at 26.81B gallons for 2026 and 27.02B gallons for 2027, including SRE reallocation.
  • Biomass-based diesel mandate rises to 9.07B gallons in 2026, up 60% vs 2025, and 9.20B gallons in 2027.
  • Corn ethanol remains unchanged at 15.0B gallons.
  • 70% of RVOs exempted for small refineries in 2023–25 are reallocated into 2026–27 mandates, adding about 1B RINs to effective obligation.
  • Renewable electricity for EV charging no longer qualifies under RFS, redirecting demand back to liquid biofuels.
  • Renewable diesel RIN equivalency is cut from 1.7 to 1.5 from Jan 2027, narrowing RD's RIN advantage over biodiesel.
  • From 2028, foreign fuels/feedstocks receive only 50% RIN value, disadvantaging UCO imports and supporting domestic soy oil/tallow.
  • EPA estimates $31B value for US corn and soybean oil for biofuel in 2026, $2B more than 2025.
  • BBD 9.07B gallons in 2026 implies roughly 7–8B lbs of soybean oil demand at typical conversion rates.
Nested Structure of the RFS Program
Conventional Renewable Fuel (D6)
Example feedstock: Corn starch
Example fuel: Ethanol, butanol
Required lifecycle GHG reduction: 20%
Advanced Biofuel (D5)
Example feedstock: Sugarcane, non-cellulosic food waste
Example fuel: Naphtha, LPG
Required lifecycle GHG reduction: 50%
Cellulosic Biofuel (D3)
Example feedstock: Crop residue, biogas
Example fuel: Cellulosic diesel, renewable CNG/LNG
Required lifecycle GHG reduction: 60%
Biomass-Based Diesel (D4)
Example feedstock: Soybean oil, canola oil, waste oil, animal fats
Example fuel: Biodiesel, renewable diesel
Required lifecycle GHG reduction: 50%
Total RFS Volume (Billion Gallons)
Biomass-Based Diesel (Billion Gallons)
Source: EPA Press Release Mar 27, 2026  ·  Final Rule PDF  ·  DTN · Clean Fuels Alliance · Crux Climate
🇮🇳
India Soy Oil Data
Coming soon — SEA India port stocks, imports & consumption data
US Export Sales
OpendataWeb API · api.fas.usda.gov
ESR updated Thursdays 8:30 AM ET
Weekly Export Highlights ↗
Commodity
Palm Oil
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Polymarket Watchlist
Read-only implied probabilities for commodities, economy, geopolitics, weather, and Fed themes. Prices are market probabilities, not trading recommendations.
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